Growth Mgmt.

Update Fall 2009

November 6th, 2009  |  Published in Growth Mgmt.

No blogging recently. My main project this year has involved regular writing about management, behind a corporate firewall. I’ve had no interest in practicing more writing here.

That project has been fun. For the past year I’ve been acting as a part time, remote, interim CEO for a client, while leading them through a restructuring effort. The project was another fine opportunity to refine a variety of ideas that I’ve been referring to generally as the “growth management” approach.

The areas of emphasis on this project included:
* collaborative planning and project management;
* strategic design and integration of tactics between departments;
* business process re-engineering, and
* financial management.

The restructuring was a success and an excellent learning experience for the whole team, myself included. I look forward to building on this practice.

Sustainable Growth is Impossible

May 13th, 2009  |  Published in Communication, Growth Mgmt.

succulent
In 1990, environmental economist Herman E. Daly published a work in the journal of the Society for International Development titled “Sustainable Growth: An Impossibility Theorem”.

The premise of this short article is straight forward; in a world of finite resources, indefinite economic growth is not a viable option.

In Daly’s words:

Impossibility statements are the very foundation of science. It is impossible to: travel faster than the speed of light; create or destroy matter-energy; build a perpetual motion machine, etc. By respecting impossibility theorems we avoid wasting resources on projects that are bound to fail. Therefore economists should be very interested in impossibility theorems, especially the one to be demonstrated here, namely that it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation. In other words, sustainable growth is impossible.

It’s unavoidable - the economy relies on a massive but not limitless quantity of natural resources and life supporting services. Common wisdom has been slow to catch on to this fact.

Business leaders are intelligent and well educated. They can conceive of the limits of growth. And then what?

A Road Through the Woods

May 8th, 2009  |  Published in Growth Mgmt., Inspiration

Siberiade” is a spectacular film by Andrei Konchalovsky. The four part epic story reveals many ancient and modern themes, in an ambitious effort to understand humanness in times of cultural instability.

The title of this post is in reference to Siberiade character Afanasy Ustyuzhanin, who abandons the social and economic responsibilities of his tiny village to clear a road through the woods, on course to a distant region told in folk stories as a source of great danger (”the Devil’s Mane”). His friends and family criticize this irrational pursuit. Society fears that the road will lead to spiritual ruin. The labor is backbreaking and his course is openly self-destructive.

Despite all physical and emotional obstacles, Afanasy continues until ultimately he is overcome by nature and dies on the job; pretty heavy stuff. And the question is clear - why? Why is he obsessed with this project? What drives a man to such madness?

Character Afanasy brings to mind a brush clearing fanatic down in Crawford, Texas.

Indeed, Oliver Stone paid tribute to Konchalovsky in his recent work “W.” Stone’s sequence of young W. working with a Texas oil crew invokes several scenes from Siberiade. It’s hard to not  view W’s behavior in the context of characters Aleksey Ustyuzhanin and his tree chopping grandfather Afanasy.

These two excellent films are essential viewing for anyone who seeks to understand the social, cultural, and environmental impacts of economic globalization. I encourage watching them both in succession, starting with Stone.

Together in a Single Knot

April 3rd, 2009  |  Published in Growth Mgmt.

Embarcadero, San Francisco
How do otherwise well intentioned, hard working and responsible professionals become caught up in bad deals?

In the 1872 novel “Demons” (aka “The Possessed”, & “The Devils”), Dostoevsky’s character Stavrogin confronts character Pyotr Stepanovich with dangerous insight:

Here you’re counting off on your fingers what forces make up a circle? All this officialdom and sentimentality - it’s good glue, but there’s one thing better still: get four members of a circle to bump off a fifth on the pretense of his being an informer, and with this shed blood you’ll immediately tie them together in a single knot. They’ll become your slaves, they won’t dare rebel or call you to accounts.

It’s an extreme literary metaphor - written as dark caution against the risks of nihilism. Possibly also an oblique argument in favor of matrix management models; those where the benefits of transparency outweigh the inefficiencies/discomfort of chaos, complexity, and red tape.

That’s a Slick Stunt!

October 3rd, 2008  |  Published in Growth Mgmt.

Nothing complex or confusing about bad debt.

“Let’s have some stunts, folks.”
“Yes, let’s!” shrieked Juanita Haydock.
“Say, Dave, give us that stunt about the Norwegian catching a hen.”
“You bet; that’s a slick stunt; do that, Dave!” cheered Chet Dashaway.
Mr. Dave Dyer obliged.
-Main Street, Sinclair Lewis, 1920

The rescue nee bailout is the farcical next verse in a grand song and dance. Don’t expect the show to be taken off the air anytime soon.

Maybe partying will help. That, and campaign finance reform.

Research and Sustainable Innovation

September 30th, 2008  |  Published in Growth Mgmt., Strategic Planning

Tom Foremski interviews Olaf Swantee of Orange Mobile at Silicon Valley Watcher. Swantee is working to address sustainability concerns from the resource efficiency angle and he ranks this issue as one of Orange’s biggest challenges.

It’s a nicely produced video interview and I recommend you check it out. Here’s an excerpt:

Swantee: “There’s a lot of operators out there that believe that mobile communications is a commodity, you know, that this thing [gestures to cell phone], the prices are going down. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, also by being at HP, that in a mature market you have to innovate. If you don’t innovate, if you don’t create differentiation, you will be marginalized in a price war in the end.”

This stock Michael Porter competitive advantage stuff has withstood the test of time. Yet these days marketers and designers are learning to take take resource efficiency into consideration. I’m going to share some ideas about HP and present what I believe is THE major challenge facing consumer electronics companies.

In many ways HP sets a good example for others to follow with their various corporate social responsibility initiatives. They do so to remain competitive, to attract and retain talented employees, to attract and retain certain classes of capital; all justifiable returns when viewed from a cost-benefit perspective. Arguably they also pursue such initiatives because it’s part of the culture of doing business in silicon valley. You might even assume that HP designers and marketers believe in resource efficiency as an ethical obligation, a sort of moral cost of doing business.

Like any company working to implement some form of sustainable management, inevitably they’re creating situations where the goals of the sustainability agenda are in direct conflict with other organizational tactics. For example, you’ve probably seen HP’s outreach related to recycling ink cartridges. Would it not be “greener” to invest less in consumer oriented downcycling and address the problem upstream with a refillable cartridge design?

HP has recently published information about cutting edge life cycle analysis (LCA) as it relates to data center design. They’re reported to employ such thinking in their component designs and packaging decisions. These decisions represent tangible and growth oriented investments in the future of the organization. HP uses promotional and R&D dollars to make  resource efficient design techniques an effective part of their brand narrative. This narrative is crafted to help differentiate their products in a mature and highly commodified market.

Have they avoided the commidification trap that Swantee alludes to? Not entirely, and we can speculate on what their margins would look like if they hadn’t placed a premium on smart design. But such speculation is irrelevant as we’ll never know what position HP would have been in had they not followed their recent course. Regardless, HP is wise to continue learning. The lessons their designers and marketers are learning represent a significant and expanding source competitive advantage in an economy increasingly confronted with emerging resource constraints.

At the same time, HP’s marketing department is pressured to create an unreasonable number of new product designs, each marginally different from the others, in a classic marketing tactic of planned obsolescence. HP has played a leading role in the culture of disposable electronic gadgetry.

Does anyone remember the late 90’s when Sun painted a massive billboard in Portland that read “Stop the Technology Madness”? The madness hasn’t stopped. Not yet. Technology and consumer electronics companies are under as much pressure as ever to shorten their concept to launch cycles - innovate! - regardless of complaints from the sustainability team. Consumers are aware of the shortened warranty periods and limited support. Designers are aware of the impact that disposable gadgets have on landfills.

Still product managers are driven to promote insignificant design changes as breakthrough innovations. Innovations create differentiation and differentiation improves short term market valuation… or short term net margin? Whatever else you might think about it; it’s a proven model. It worked. It still sort of does.

This type of overinflated “innovation” has played a central role in HP’s design and marketing decisions. Unfortunately such thinking is obsolete for any organization that hopes to use design and marketing to avoid commodification in a mature market. The reason being is that too many people have played that game. It’s played out. People were successful playing the game and so the game itself changed as the direct result of their success.

In the words of Michael Porter:

“Understanding what allows it to be unique will also ensure that a firm does not undermine the causes.” (Competitive Advantage, 1985)

False innovation is not a unique characteristic in the consumer electronics market and therefore should not be viewed as a source of brand differentiation. In Porter’s terms, planned obsolescence is a “driver of uniqueness” as a policy choice. Similarly, investing in resource efficient design can be a driver of uniqueness in the areas of learning and spillover. The point of interest is that planned obsolescence and resource efficiency seem to be inherently in conflict. Consumer electronics marketers need to develop methods to reconcile this conflict.

The challenge now, as I see it, is to develop transitional marketing models that support moving away from the technology madness of planned obsolescence and disposable gadgetry. Companies like HP (and Orange Mobile) are up to the challenge and they deserve respect and recognition for many of their management practices. This transition will require leadership at the policy level and at the design and product marketing level. I’m optimistic about their chances.

Last Person Out Please Turn Out the Lights

September 11th, 2008  |  Published in Growth Mgmt.

Via SmashingTelly comes a 5 hour PBS/BBC documentary about taking great risks in the aerospace industry.

“I was a young engineer here in 1969 when two thirds of the Boeing population left, during the period when there was a big sign outside of Seattle that read ‘last person out please turn out the lights.’ That clearly has affected the way I think about organizations and the stability of organizations.  Be more careful when you’re going up because on the other side of up is always down. We went up way too fast, we weren’t efficient in process, so when we got to the top we were way over-manned and the far side was very steep. Don’t want to ever do that again.”

- Phil Condit, Boeing, General Manager 777 Division

It’s probably possible to understand and manage growth while it’s happening, to learn the lessons of collapse without ever having to live through one. It’s possible to embrace risk and pursue growth while keeping an eye on the horizon. Condit recommends that you focus on process efficiency during times of rapid growth.

Venture Funds Expand Their Reach

March 11th, 2008  |  Published in Growth Mgmt., Local Economics

Matt Richtel at NY Times Bits summarizes a survey from the National Venture Capital Association.

The survey results show that VC’s had a successful 2007 in terms of creating markets in new regions. The Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Berkeley area is the undisputed national leader in total deal flow. Meanwhile, other regions are growing at a faster rate. Richtel writes:

“A number of factors propelled growth elsewhere. Among them, some not-very-startling developments: increasingly capable telecommunications and accessible travel has made it possible for venture capitalists to live in financial centers but to oversee investments in distant areas. But there have also been specific efforts by regions outside of Silicon Valley to attract capital, and those efforts are paying off, said the National Venture Capital Association.”

From my limited perspective, telecommunications technology seems to be the main enabling force here - email and web based communication especially. Vendors and clients are learning to work together in new ways, especially remotely. As a result, individuals with highly specific expertise (VC financiers as an example) are available to a much broader economic region.

It’s not a 2007 thing… the NVCA analysis supports ideas that people have been talking about since Gilder’s Telecosm and Malone’s Future of Work.

According to NVCA President Mark Heesen:

“Venture capital growth is extremely organic. Once a critical mass of companies is funded in a certain region, a new ecosystem will develop,” Heesen says. “It is very magnetic in the sense that start-ups breed innovative thinkers and entrepreneurs who, in turn, attract venture capitalists. For regions that don’t have a large, indigenous venture investor base, it is important to give outsideVCs a reason to visit.

Good stuff!

[tags]indigenous wisdom, venture investor base, co-creating progressive management jargon[/tags]

EBay Refuses to Censor Boycott Community

February 20th, 2008  |  Published in Communication, Growth Mgmt., Local Economics

EBay deserves credit for not shutting down this pro-boycott thread in their own forum. EBay is doing the right thing by allowing the thread to stay alive. It must be frustrating for insiders to watch.

Congratulations eBay for allowing the community to continue using that thread. The decision to support dissenting opinion reflects well on the confidence, values and vision of your leadership team.

One excerpt from the 234+ page pro-boycott discussion thread:

“Even as I sit here looking at my unsold items, I’m still kind of happy I’m contributing to the boycott. Even if it’s only in a small way. While they might not be as popular as eBay I’ve found a lot great sites. The one I’m moving my listings to right now let me import my ebay feedback score to their site so that I don’t lose my good ratings! They even transfered all of my unsold item listings from eBay over to their site!”

Things are looking up for eBay’s competitors, meanwhile eBay share price is approaching a three year low. The boycott could easily lead to multiple compression, if investors decide to reassess eBay’s 112.33 P/E ratio based on a forward P/E ratio of 27.37.

Question: Why the discrepancy between yahoo finance and google finance’s data for eBay’s P/E ratio? Doesn’t their data come from the same source?

Onion AV Club Interview With Jon Brion

February 10th, 2008  |  Published in Growth Mgmt., Inspiration

Musician and producer Jon Brion:

“I think my life is a version of my show played out over a very long time. There are periods of structured things; there are periods of improvisation. There are periods that go better than expected, and there are periods where you fall on your face. You get back up if you really love what you’re doing, and you do it regardless. I have that freedom by not having a set list.”

Always fun to hear people from the pop music industry talking about ideas.

Interesting side plot seems to be the AV Club editors weighing their obvious appreciation for stories like this one against their desire to reach as many eyeballs as possible. Probably some kind of growth management story in there too. Difficult decisions to be made when opportunities for growth potentially conflict with efforts to honor an original vision.

[tags]Onion AV Club, Jon Brion[/tags]